Bayes through the Looking-Glass: Assessing the Credibility of Clinical Trial Outcomes by Inverting Bayes’s Theorem
A trial reports p = 0.03. As this is less than 0.05, it meets the well-known criterion for being statistically significant. But is the trial outcome also credible? That depends on what you mean by credible—and on information the p-value alone cannot provide. Statistical significance tells you the