Evidence in the Wild

Evidence in the Wild

Because the real world didn’t read your protocol

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Latest Articles

12
Mar
5 min read

What Randomization Can't Fix

The last post argued that how you randomize is a design decision most biostatisticians treat as settled before the interesting work begins. REMAP-CAP showed what happens when that decision is taken seriously. The carat package showed that even standard covariate-adaptive randomization has inferential consequences most of us aren't

10
Mar
6 min read

Bayesian Priors in Clinical Trials: Why Historical Borrowing Reduces Sample Size

A simulation study on why historical control borrowing reduces sample size, and what happens when the history is wrong

05
Mar
5 min read

The Simulations Behind Comment 3

Last week I published what I submitted to the FDA on their January 2026 Bayesian guidance. Comment 3 argued that when you compose Bayesian trial components (priors, borrowing, sequential monitoring), the system's operating characteristics can diverge from what component-level analysis predicts. This post shows you the math. The