Evidence in the Wild

Evidence in the Wild

Because the real world didn’t read your protocol

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Latest Articles

17
Mar
13 min read

Bayes through the Looking-Glass: Assessing the Credibility of Clinical Trial Outcomes by Inverting Bayes’s Theorem

A trial reports p = 0.03. As this is less than 0.05, it meets the well-known criterion for being statistically significant. But is the trial outcome also credible? That depends on what you mean by credible—and on information the p-value alone cannot provide. Statistical significance tells you the

12
Mar
5 min read

What Randomization Can't Fix

The last post argued that how you randomize is a design decision most biostatisticians treat as settled before the interesting work begins. REMAP-CAP showed what happens when that decision is taken seriously. The carat package showed that even standard covariate-adaptive randomization has inferential consequences most of us aren't

10
Mar
6 min read

Bayesian Priors in Clinical Trials: Why Historical Borrowing Reduces Sample Size

A simulation study on why historical control borrowing reduces sample size, and what happens when the history is wrong