Evidence in the Wild

Evidence in the Wild

Because the real world didn’t read your protocol

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Latest Articles

12
Feb
5 min read

Error Asymmetry: How FDA Decides Which Mistakes Matter More

Most statistical frameworks treat errors symmetrically. A false positive is bad. A false negative is bad. Control one, tolerate the other, and let the math do the rest. Clinical reality is not that tidy. Approving an ineffective therapy and withholding a potentially effective one are both errors, but they do

10
Feb
4 min read

Science Is Not Neutral, and That’s the Point

In September 2016, the FDA approved eteplirsen for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The advisory committee had voted 7 to 6 against accelerated approval. The FDA's own review team recommended against it. The clinical program consisted of 12 boys, and western blot analysis showed a dystrophin increase of 0.93%

05
Feb
4 min read

The Post-Hoc Problem: Why Bayesian Pre-Specification Matters More Than the Philosophy

The Bayesian vs. frequentist debate usually centers on philosophy. Priors are subjective! No, they formalize existing knowledge! You're smuggling in assumptions! You're ignoring relevant information! It's a fun argument. It's also the wrong one, at least for regulatory decision-making. The real value