Evidence in the Wild

Evidence in the Wild

Because the real world didn’t read your protocol

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Latest Articles

31
Mar
6 min read

The Grammar No One Reads: How Platform Trials Standardize Statistical Design

If you look at a single ComboMATCH substudy on ClinicalTrials.gov, you see a clinical trial. Two-stage design, 30 patients, objective response rate. It looks like any Phase II study. If you look across substudies, you see something different. You see a system. I was a statistician on two SWOG

26
Mar
6 min read

When the AI Statistician Gets It Right (and Why That's the Dangerous Part)

A few months ago, I asked an LLM to design my clinical trial. It recommended a Bayesian borrowing design for a Phase 2 single-arm oncology trial. The response was fluent, well-organized, and cited the right methods. It was also wrong—in ways that would survive a casual review. That post

24
Mar
7 min read

When Response-Adaptive Randomization Is the Right Design: Lessons from PAIN-CONTRoLS

A four-arm neuropathy trial shows what RAR looks like when it's used for the right reasons