Evidence in the Wild

Evidence in the Wild

Because the real world didn’t read your protocol

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Latest Articles

19
Feb
6 min read

The Square Peg Problem: Why FDA’s Bayesian–Frequentist Truce Still Hurts

In January 2026, the FDA released updated guidance on the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials. The document does not read like a manifesto. It reads like an attempt to reconcile competing statistical cultures under real regulatory constraints. On its surface, it is pragmatic and flexible, welcoming Bayesian designs

17
Feb
4 min read

When Tumor Shrinkage Doesn't Mean Living Longer

In 2019, FDA granted accelerated approval to voxelotor for sickle cell disease based on a surrogate endpoint: hemoglobin increase. The mechanism was sound. Voxelotor increased hemoglobin oxygen affinity, which should reduce sickling and improve outcomes. The biology made sense. The FDA agreed. Patients got access. In September 2024, the drug

12
Feb
5 min read

Error Asymmetry: How FDA Decides Which Mistakes Matter More

Most statistical frameworks treat errors symmetrically. A false positive is bad. A false negative is bad. Control one, tolerate the other, and let the math do the rest. Clinical reality is not that tidy. Approving an ineffective therapy and withholding a potentially effective one are both errors, but they do